A young grain producer and I were recently speaking about marketing and he expressed frustration in his quest to do a good job at pricing his crops. While he does an excellent job of producing his crops on the 1,000+ acres he farms, he feels out of his league when he ventures into the world of grain marketing at the CME. I acknowledged his concerns and encouraged him to keep learning as much as he could about marketing, and to practice a degree of patience.
I explained to this producer that achieving a level of comfort and success with marketing often takes years.
How often have we heard “those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it” and “the future is a repetition of the past”? I mention these quotations to highlight the similarities of an event that occurred nearly forty years ago and which now could again be possible.
Right now central banks around the world are taking unprecedented measures to keep interest rates pinned near zero. In fact, in many parts of the world interest rates are now negative!
We don’t see indications sharply higher interest rates are imminent. Still, we urge all readers to consider what could cause either short- or long-term interest rates to turn higher. Decisions involving debt need to consider not just the current situation, but also scenarios for what may lie ahead.
Below are a few things to think about when assuming interest rates will stay low for years and years.
As market analysts, our toolbox contains quite a few tools that give us insight into the markets and help us make recommendations. These include futures charts, cycles, crop reports, weather reports, world fundamentals, Canadian markets, input from local grain traders and seasonal odds.