No One Can Beat the Market

By Fred Evans – June 8, 2017


“No one can beat the market.” — Edwin Lefevre


Isn’t that a fine statement from a man who enjoyed an 18-year career encouraging people to trade futures?


He had a point: There’s evidence that only two in ten people will be successful speculating on the market, and if those two stay in the market long enough they too will lose.

The News & What it Means – Hog Market Bucking Old Adage & Corn Price Outlook Turns Positive

By John DePutter & Dave Milne – June 6, 2017


The news:

Hogs up sharply! For agricultural commodities, larger supplies generally result in lower prices. But this year’s hog market is going against that adage – with both larger supplies and higher prices!

– Commentary by Chris Hurt, Dept of Ag Economics, University of Illinois, on farmdoc daily, June 5, 2017.

The News & What it Means – High Protein Spring Wheat May Offer Better Returns & IGC Counting on Lower Soybean Yields to Dampen Supplies

By John DePutter & Dave Milne – May 31, 2017


The news:

“The earliest reports from the start of the US hard red winter wheat harvest underscored industry fears of a second straight year of low protein, a factor that shifts the market’s focus to prospects for the North American spring wheat crop, a higher-protein variety.”

Reuters, May 30, 2017

The News & What it Means – Pessimism in the Soybean Markets & Tumbling Oil Prices

By John DePutter & Dave Milne – May 5, 2017


The news:

With big crops being harvested in South America and U.S. planted area set to increase dramatically, American producers have become decidedly more downbeat on soybean price prospects.

– Syngenta Farm, May 2, 2017