Topic: Market Insight

Better Marketing Information but Human Emotions Still in Play

By Fred Evans – June 4, 2018

 

Two Sundays ago, I stopped in at a local convenience store and noticed the television was tuned to a Canadian all-news station.

 

The last provincial leaders’ debate had just ended and I asked the young clerk how it had gone. Her reply was that she had not paid attention to it but “as long as Ford did not win the election she would be happy.”

 

“Ford is just like Trump,” and we can’t have that in Ontario, she told me.

A Look at Weather Markets of the Past

By Fred Evans – March 21, 2018

 

“What is cheap (undervalued) that I can buy that is going to go up so that I can make some money?” 

 

That was the standard refrain I heard when I would receive inquiries from neophyte investors (speculators) interested in trading commodity futures.  In my twenty years as a commodity futures account executive I never received a single phone call from a potential client who asked “what is overvalued that I can sell short and make some money?”

No One Can Beat the Market

By Fred Evans – June 8, 2017

 

“No one can beat the market.” — Edwin Lefevre

 

Isn’t that a fine statement from a man who enjoyed an 18-year career encouraging people to trade futures?

 

He had a point: There’s evidence that only two in ten people will be successful speculating on the market, and if those two stay in the market long enough they too will lose.

Marketing Lessons Learned From a Pro

By Fred Evans – March 30, 2017

 

A young grain producer and I were recently speaking about marketing and he expressed frustration in his quest to do a good job at pricing his crops.  While he does an excellent job of producing his crops on the 1,000+ acres he farms, he feels out of his league when he ventures into the world of grain marketing at the CME.  I acknowledged his concerns and encouraged him to keep learning as much as he could about marketing, and to practice a degree of patience.

I explained to this producer that achieving a level of comfort and success with marketing often takes years.

Is the commodity broker still relevant? What the evolution of futures trading means for today’s farmer.

By Fred Evans – February 22, 2017 

 

The idea for this blog was hatched following a discussion within our office about an apparent lack of interest by many young farmers to learn about futures markets and price risk management.

We asked ourselves a few questions:

– Will the next generation of farmers have the same depth of understanding about commodity futures as the outgoing generation?

– Are farmers as willing to hedge grain with futures contracts and use basis contracts now as they were nearly forty years ago?

– How has the industry changed over the years?

– What can we learn from the past?

In this article, we’ll explore these questions through an examination of the evolution of futures trading.